BREXIT! BREXIT! BREXIT!

[trdsf]

I can't see how a referendum on the real Brexit (as opposed to the unicorn poop sold by Leave, all of which was walked back the day after the vote in 2016 -- hey, how's that loose £350 million a week working out?) can be avoided at this point.

I don't get what May's problem is. I thought she was a Remainer, and that the referendum was advisory rather than binding, and in any case was hardly a blowout unlike the previous referendum on membership in the EU. But she seems determined to make this as agonizing as possible... although that might just be her Remainer side saying "All right, you wanted Brexit? Here it comes sideways and without lube, bend over!"

I also don't get Corbyn's problem. A cannier Labour head would've been sitting in No. 10 by now, but Corbyn has just been all over the place, desperate to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — although given the current clusterfuck, I can't say I blame anyone for not wanting May's job right now.

Even so, I'd still trade Great Britain even up for Trump and his crowd, and throw in Senator Yertle McConnell for free.

[Hermit]

I also don't get Corbyn's problem. A cannier Labour head would've been sitting in No. 10 by now, but Corbyn has just been all over the place, desperate to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — although given the current clusterfuck, I can't say I blame anyone for not wanting May's job right now.

Corbyn is in favour of the UK leaving the UK. He has been for decades. His problem is that the majority of Labour voters want the UK to remain a member. If Corbyn openly advocated what he thinks should happen he'll lose a lot of them. He thinks by sitting on the fence, prevaricating and saying meaningless stuff about the issue, he won't be seen to be responsible for Brexit when it does come about, thereby avoiding such a loss. Unfortunately for him, that makes him a non-leader, and a dishonest one at that. People realise that. He is digging his own grave.

[JimC]

Hermit wrote:

Corbyn is in favour of the UK leaving the UK.

That's rather zen of him...

[Hermit]

Hermit wrote:

Corbyn is in favour of the UK leaving the UK.

That's rather zen of him...

[Scot Dutchy]

trdsf

The important part of the equation you have forgot: Tax Havens. The Brexiteers (including May, she is not the remainer you thought) have their money, many billions, in off shore tax havens which would be subject to stringent EU taxes if any Brexit deal went ahead. They want a no deal at any cost. Hence Chequers yesterday.
Corbyn is no better than a side show. Nobody will take over May's job as she is there for the duration.

[Brian Peacock]

...
I don't get what May's problem is. I thought she was a Remainer, and that the referendum was advisory rather than binding, and in any case was hardly a blowout unlike the previous referendum on membership in the EU. But she seems determined to make this as agonizing as possible... although that might just be her Remainer side saying "All right, you wanted Brexit? Here it comes sideways and without lube, bend over!"

...

Cameron promised the referendum to his backbench Euro-sceptic wing to secure their voting support after the 2015 general election, which saw the Tories stumble to slim overall majority of 12 after 5 year in coalition with the now hated and loathed Lib Dems. First he went to the EU to secure concessions regard migrant workers from other EU countries, waved his hands around a bit, and returned declaring he'd secured the exact same rules that other EU countries were already applying, as if this was something new. His backbenchers felt i) let down, because they basically adhere to a nationalist agenda and wanted a block on Johnny Foreigners, and ii) caught a whiff of blood because they realised Cameron was always going to put the party before principle or the national interest. All that was needed was the threat of a rebellion, which would have shat all over Cameron's 'legacy' as leader, and so the referendum, which had been a key UKIP-voter lure in the election manifesto, was ordered - "To settle the question of Europe for a generation, and beyond."

We had the referendum, Cameron and Co did a half-arsed job of strolling in for the win, and the tighty righty wing of the party deployed their reactionary rhetoric to great emotive effect. Cameron and Remain lost, Leave won despite some decidedly dodgy financial shenanigans and collaborating with the Russians and Cambridge Analytica etc. Cameroon took off on his trotters 'for the good of the party and the country' and May was elevated unopposed after Boris got cold feet when Gove stabbed him in the back.

May now found herself in the same position as Cameron before the referendum - that is, under a lot of pressure from antsy backbenchers who had now been vindicated by the referendum vote. She solemnly promised to deliver a Tory Brexit which would live up to the rhetoric of the Leave campaign. And so, under pressure from the backbenches she invoked the now infamous Article 50 process with n'ary a second thought, and certainly without any preparation or even a semblance of a coherent idea about what Brexit she wanted to achieve. What else could she do but say whatever she had to say to keep the peace, and bide her time?

In 2017, and with Labour under the constant cosh of the right-wing press because their leader (who himself had suffered ignominy upon ignominy at the hand of his own parties right-ish-wing) wore a Lenin hat and rode a communist-style bicycle, May took a punt on a snap general election. She saw that the Tories were 20 points ahead in the polls and bet on returning a much improved majority in the Commons - which would have at least had the effect of diluting the need to offer constant relief to the self-appointed officiates and votaries of a burgeoning Brexitarian faith. Like Cameron and the referendum, she thought being a Tory leader was the only quality needed to secure a win and so she limped up and down the country, her face ironed into a rictus parody of a friendly smile, and repeated the phrases 'There's No Magic Money Tree' and 'Strong and Stable Government" whenever aides poked her in the back of the leg with a knitting needle.



Come election day, rather than bolstering her parties majority she slashed it by such an amount that she had to look to the Northern Ireland Chapter of the political wing on the Old Testament to ensure a so-called 'supply and confidence' arrangement. May shook the magic money tree -- turned out there was one in the basement of the Treasury all along -- and Northern Ireland got an extra £1bn of budgetary discretion and Maybot got a tersely worded assurance from the party of Dr No!



Now an embattled PM had to try and please two antagonistic, ideologically driven groups for which there was literally no pleasing - the strengthening Brexitarian faith and the dogmatically faithful science-denying YEC Democratic Unionist Party. Brexitarians wanted a clean break from the EU in order to set Britain up as a kind of modern day Tortuga where they could frolic freely and put their illicit Doubloon to better use than simply hiding them away on tax havens in a big chest marked with an X. The DUP's idea of a good time on the other hand is to stand around and barrack a rape victim while she gives birth in a ditch.

Being a hostage to fortune meant May had to invite those few respectable frontmen for the Brexitarian faith into her Cabinet even though they had no interest in government aside from fiddling the tax system to their benefit and selling off the family silver to whoever might offer them a seat on the board, and so Mrs May was forced, for the sake of party unity, to put Brexitarians in charge of the Foreign office, International trade, and most importantly the newly created department for exiting the EU. This didn't go down with the middle two-thirds of her party, and she has been getting in from all sides ever since.

Negotiations with the EU on the exit arrangement didn't break down as much as never really start, and it was only in July last year, when ministers and MPs were safely on holiday, that she took personal control and began hammering out an agreement with the EU - ending with the publication of the November declaration and legally binding agreement on trade status and the Irish border - "the deal" - and we all know what Brexitarians and soft-Brexiteers and Remainers alike think of that. It's shite - for more reasons than I have the energy to go into here - but shite shite shite it is!!

Since then May has presented the negotiated deal as the only game in town. She's ignored the entreaties of Cabinet colleagues, cold shouldered any offer of compromise or cross-party working arrangements, and with the notion that Brexit is to be a shining example of Tory success to the fore she's used her control of parliamentary time and procedure to scupper all critics, challengers, and to some extent those who'd ahve just liked the opportunity to tweak the kind of soft-Brexit she'd negotiated. "No", says mother, "I know best and you either agree with me or you're undermining the will of the people."

So her problem is not just that she thinks nobody appreciates her efforts, but that nobody, particularly in Parliament, likes or supports what's she's done and how she's gone about it, and now Cabinet colleagues are briefing against her four times a day and, bizarrely, ministers are urging the Commons to vote with the government and then ambling out of the chamber to vote against it themselves. She's a spent force politically, and is only really still in office as a scapegoat for whatever goes wrong next. "I'm just fulfilling the will of the people," she bleats hoarsely into the wind. "It's those flipping MPs and Parliament who have let the country down... not me.... never me... I told them.... I- I- I- told them we should never have let the House of Commons decide something as important as this - but would they listen... would they... no... they wouldn't... are you the lady who looks after me... have I had my dinner yet... I used to be Prime Minister you know... I used to be somebody..."




Revoke Article 50 petition signatures: 5,330,676

[Scot Dutchy]

Nice summary Brian. I would add the following. What May got wrong in her deal making was she gave no feedback to her government especially when it came to the backstop. She was always under the idea that her deal could be broken open for further negotiation and so did the rest of the Brexiteers and when the EU said no she had a problem. The UK was trying after many negotiation tactics to use the "infinity negotiations" one. Eternal negotiations with the UK neither in or out. Switzerland does the same. It is a form of defence but while Switzerland is a small rich economy the UK is not.

[Alan B]

It's becoming more like "The Manipulated Will of the People".

[trdsf]

That is the first summing up I've seen that actually makes sense as to why it's a clusterfuck regardless of which way you look at it.

May now found herself in the same position as Cameron before the referendum - that is, under a lot of pressure from antsy backbenchers who had now been vindicated by the referendum vote. She solemnly promised to deliver a Tory Brexit which would live up to the rhetoric of the Leave campaign. And so, under pressure from the backbenches she invoked the now infamous Article 50 process with n'ary a second thought, and certainly without any preparation or even a semblance of a coherent idea about what Brexit she wanted to achieve. What else could she do but say whatever she had to say to keep the peace, and bide her time?

This was the action that blew my mind: setting a date to leave without even having begun negotiations on the divorce settlement. As an act of political naïveté, it was genuinely on a scale comparable to Chamberlain and his piece of paper.

[Brian Peacock]

Ah, but while the Tories might be a ragbag of reactionary intolerance and internecine faction fighting, they at least know which side their bread's buttered on. Until recently they all pulled together in a storm. Now, however, they are the storm.

[Brian Peacock]

MPs seize control of Brexit process by backing indicative votes amendment

MPs have inflicted a fresh humiliating defeat on Theresa May, voting to seize control of the parliamentary timetable to allow backbenchers to hold a series of votes on alternatives to her Brexit deal.

An amendment tabled by former Tory minister Oliver Letwin passed, by 329 votes to 302 on Monday night, as MPs expressed their exasperation at the government’s failure to set out a fresh approach.

The prime minister had earlier declined to say whether she would abide by the outcome of a process of “indicative votes”.

The government issued a punchy statement after the amendment passed, warning that it “upends the balance between our democratic institutions and sets a dangerous, unpredictable precedent for the future”.

Three ministers resigned from government in order to back the Letwin amendment: the foreign affairs minister, Alistair Burt, the health minister Steve Brine and the business minister Richard Harrington. A total of 29 Tory MPs rebelled to vote for the amendment...

When the Leave campaign came up with the slogan "Taking Back Control" (of British sovereignty) they didn't actually mean for that control to go to MPs.

[JimC]

All this political machination must leave Tory cabinet ministers much less time with their rent boys...

[pErvinalia]

[Brian Peacock]

But I bet the dominatrixes are doing well... "Oh you have been a naughty little backbencher haven't you?" THWACK!!! "Yes mistress... very naughty..."

[Scot Dutchy]

It is all time wasting. No deal is still approaching.