Global Climate Change Science News

[Brian Peacock]

Discussion of planetary boundaries between Mark Lynas and Johan Rockström:

[L'Emmerdeur]

Perhaps we needn't worry overmuch about methane clathrates but it looks like there may be a different sort of long term vicious cycle to consider.

'Melting glaciers could trigger more explosive eruptions globally, finds research'

Melting glaciers may be silently setting the stage for more explosive and frequent volcanic eruptions in the future, according to research on six volcanoes in the Chilean Andes.

Presented today [Tuesday 8 July] at the Goldschmidt Conference in Prague, the study suggests that hundreds of dormant subglacial volcanoes worldwide – particularly in Antarctica – could become more active as climate change accelerates glacier retreat.

The link between retreating glaciers and increased volcanic activity has been known in Iceland since the 1970s, but this is one of the first studies to explore the phenomenon in continental volcanic systems. The findings could help scientists better understand and predict volcanic activity in glacier-covered regions.

...

Pablo Moreno-Yaeger from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, is presenting the research at the Goldschmidt Conference. He said: “Glaciers tend to suppress the volume of eruptions from the volcanoes beneath them. But as glaciers retreat due to climate change, our findings suggest these volcanoes go on to erupt more frequently and more explosively. The key requirement for increased explosivity is initially having a very thick glacial coverage over a magma chamber, and the trigger point is when these glaciers start to retreat, releasing pressure – which is currently happening in places like Antarctica.

“Our study suggests this phenomenon isn’t limited to Iceland, where increased volcanicity has been observed, but could also occur in Antarctica. Other continental regions, like parts of North America, New Zealand and Russia, also now warrant closer scientific attention.”

While the volcanic response to glacial melting is almost instant in geological terms, the process of changes in the magma system is gradual and occurs over centuries, giving some time for monitoring and early warning.

The researchers also note that increased volcanic activity could have global climate impacts. In the short term, eruptions release aerosol (tiny particles in gases) that can temporarily cool the planet. This was seen after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which reduced global temperatures by approximately 0.5 degrees C. But with multiple eruptions, the effects reverse.

“Over time the cumulative effect of multiple eruptions can contribute to long-term global warming because of a buildup of greenhouse gases,” said Moreno-Yaeger. “This creates a positive feedback loop, where melting glaciers trigger eruptions, and the eruptions in turn could contribute to further warming and melting.”

[Brian Peacock]

[Tero]

Finally! They got rid of pesky greenhouse effect. Now, ban fluoride nation wide.
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/24/nx-s1-53 ... -trump-epa

[L'Emmerdeur]

Evil scientists have falsely maligned the innocent patriotic fossil fuel corporations for long enough. Time for politicians to step in and make things right.

'US to rewrite its past national climate reports'

US President Donald Trump's administration is revising past editions of the nation's premier climate report—its latest move to undermine the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming.

The decision, announced by Energy Secretary Chris Wright during a CNN appearance Tuesday night, follows the government's revocation of the Endangerment Finding, a scientific determination that underpins a host of regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Asked by CNN's Kaitlan Collins why previous editions of the National Climate Assessment were no longer available online, former fracking company CEO Wright responded: "Because we're reviewing them, and we will come out with updated reports on those and with comments on those."

First published in 2000, the National Climate Assessment has long been viewed as a cornerstone of the US government's understanding of climate science, synthesizing input from federal agencies and hundreds of external experts.

Previous editions warned in stark terms of mounting risks to America's economy, infrastructure, and public health if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. But in April, the administration moved to dismiss the hundreds of scientists working on the sixth edition.

Under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, the government is legally obligated to deliver the climate assessment to Congress and the president.

Trump's administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have pressed forward with their pro-fossil fuel agenda—dismantling clean energy tax credits through the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill" and opening more ecologically sensitive lands to drilling.

Last month's proposed revocation of the Endangerment Finding by the Environmental Protection Agency was accompanied by the release of a new climate study from the Department of Energy, authored by climate change contrarians.

[JimC]

Revisionist history at its finest...

[Brian Peacock]

Oceania was at war with Eurasia; therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.

[L'Emmerdeur]

It's of a piece with yanking funding for climate study in general. Infantile magical thinking--if you don't see it it's not there, even if the reason you don't see it is because your eyes are covered. If you didn't know their priors you'd think that any but the most devoted MAGA believer would understand that it's absurd and transparently dishonest. It helps that their culture is built on despising egg-headed intellectuals, climate scientists in particular.

[Brian Peacock]

And it's also totally pointless in an internet age unless you have complete control over the information the public has access to. Even if the media and the schools and universities play along it's still going to be an open secret, and just another reason to distrust and despise the govt.

[aufbahrung]

# The Superquake Hypothesis: Could the Deep Ocean Be Hiding the Next Global Flood? #

### Introduction: The Paradox of Rising Seas Without Floods

For decades, scientists have warned that melting ice caps and glaciers would inundate the world’s coastlines. Yet, while sea levels have risen steadily—about 20 centimeters since 1900 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the apocalyptic coastal flooding many expected has not yet materialized. Miami floods at king tide, Jakarta sinks under its own weight, but the wholesale drowning of cities has not come.

Some geologists argue that the missing piece of the puzzle may lie not in the ice, but in the deep ocean floor itself. A controversial hypothesis suggests that Earth undergoes periodic “global super quakes”—planetary-scale tectonic adjustments that occur roughly every 20 million years. The last, according to some interpretations of marine sediment and tectonic records, may have struck 23 million years ago. If true, the next could be imminent.

---

### The Ocean Floor as a Hidden Reservoir

The ocean basins are not static bowls. They flex, deform, and deepen under the weight of water and shifting tectonic plates. Evidence from seafloor spreading and subduction zones shows that oceanic crust is constantly recycled, with new crust forming at mid-ocean ridges and old crust sinking into trenches [Britannica, 2025].

This dynamic means that meltwater from glaciers may not immediately translate into coastal flooding. Instead, some of it may be “stored” in deepening basins as the ocean floor subtly sags under the added weight. A 2023 study in *Nature Communications* showed that ocean wave energy itself can generate seismic signals strong enough to alter stress regimes in the crust [The Conversation, 2023].

The superquake hypothesis posits that this storage is temporary. At some threshold, the ocean floor could undergo catastrophic deformation, releasing pooled water in a sudden redistribution event—a deluge that would overwhelm coastlines worldwide.

---

### Magma Movements: A Warning Sign?

Recent seismic crises in volcanic regions such as Santorini have revealed how magma displacement can trigger tens of thousands of earthquakes in short bursts [Phys.org, 2025; National Geographic, 2025]. These swarms are localized, but they illustrate a principle: when magma shifts, the crust responds violently.

If similar processes were to occur on a global scale—magma migrating in vast plumes, altering the buoyancy of entire oceanic plates—the result could be a deformation event orders of magnitude larger than any recorded earthquake. The “superquake” would not merely topple cities; it would tilt the oceans themselves.

---

### Non-Linearity: The Overlooked Factor in Climate and Geology

Both science and politics often assume gradualism: seas rise slowly, temperatures climb predictably, tectonic plates creep at centimeters per year. But complex systems rarely behave linearly.

- **Climate Non-Linearity:** Studies show that feedback loops—such as Arctic ice loss accelerating warming, or methane release from thawing permafrost—can trigger abrupt shifts [Rial et al., 2004].
- **Geological Non-Linearity:** Earthquakes are classic examples of stress building invisibly until a sudden rupture releases it all. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, triggered by a magnitude 9.1 quake, displaced billions of tons of water in minutes.

The superquake hypothesis extends this logic: the ocean floor may be quietly storing stress and water until a tipping point unleashes it catastrophically.

---

### Consequences: The Drowning of Civilization

If such an event were to occur, the consequences would dwarf any climate projection currently on the political agenda.

- **Farmlands:** The world’s most fertile deltas—the Nile, Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mississippi—would vanish beneath saltwater. Hundreds of millions would lose their food base.
- **Cities at Risk:** New York, London, Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos, and Rio de Janeiro—all coastal megacities—would be inundated. The UN estimates that 680 million people live in low-lying coastal zones today.
- **Global Economy:** Ports, refineries, and data hubs clustered along coasts would be destroyed, collapsing trade and communication networks.

Unlike gradual sea-level rise, which allows for adaptation, a sudden deluge would leave no time for retreat.

---

### Why Politics and Science Miss the Non-Linear Threat

The political system thrives on predictability: incremental targets, five-year plans, cost-benefit analyses. Non-linear risks—events that happen rarely but with catastrophic impact—are marginalized.

Science, too, often defaults to models that emphasize gradual change. The IPCC acknowledges “low-probability, high-impact” events, but these remain footnotes in reports rather than central scenarios. The superquake hypothesis, speculative though it is, underscores the danger of ignoring the tails of the probability curve.

---

### A Warning in the Language of Prophecy

If the superquake comes, it will not be a flood like those of history, nor even like the biblical deluge. It will be a planetary convulsion, the seas themselves rising not inch by inch but in a single, world-shaking surge.

> *“And the waters prevailed exceedingly upon the earth; and all the high hills, that were under the whole heaven, were covered.”* —Genesis 7:19

The warning is clear: humanity must not mistake the calm of today’s tides for safety. The Earth is a restless system, and its deep reservoirs may yet rise against us.

---

### References
- Britannica, *Plate Tectonics: Seafloor Spreading* (2025)
- The Conversation, *How Global Warming Shakes the Earth* (2023)
- Phys.org, *Magma Displacement Triggered Tens of Thousands of Earthquakes* (2025)
- National Geographic, *Santorini Earthquake Swarm* (2025)
- Rial, J.A. et al., *Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth’s Climate System* (2004)

---

Addendum

---

## Part I: The Calm That Isn’t Calm

For decades, the narrative of climate change has been one of gradualism: seas rising inch by inch, glaciers retreating mile by mile, coastlines eroding tide by tide. The story is told in charts, projections, and incremental targets. Yet the lived reality is stranger.

Despite the melting of Greenland and Antarctica, the wholesale drowning of cities has not yet arrived. Instead, the oceans seem to absorb the meltwater, deepening silently, as if the basins themselves are flexing to accommodate the excess. This paradox has puzzled scientists: why has the catastrophe not yet matched the models?

The answer may lie not in the surface, but in the deep. The ocean floor is not a fixed bowl but a living, shifting membrane. It sags under weight, flexes under stress, and responds to the restless churn of magma below. Some geologists argue that the oceans are storing water in their deepening basins, like a dammed reservoir. But reservoirs burst.

And when they do, they do not trickle. They roar.

---

## Part II: The Pacific’s Fever

In 2025, the Pacific Ocean began to behave like a patient with a mysterious fever. Marine heatwaves—colossal “blobs” of warm water—spread across thousands of miles, from Japan to the American West Coast. One anomaly stretched 5,000 miles, baffling scientists with its persistence and intensity.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-term climate pattern, appeared to be shifting into a new phase. But this was no ordinary oscillation. Temperatures were not just high—they were record-breaking, with sea surface anomalies exceeding anything in the instrumental record.

Two distinct bands of ocean, circling the globe near 40° latitude, were heating faster than anywhere else on Earth. These bands acted like planetary warning lights, glowing red on the climate dashboard.

The dots, when connected, suggest something brewing below. The ocean does not heat evenly unless something deeper is stirring. It is as if the Pacific itself is a geyser, its lid rattling, its waters trembling with the pressure of what lies beneath.

---

## Part III: Yellowstone’s Superswarm

Meanwhile, in the heart of North America, Yellowstone has been restless. Machine learning analysis in 2025 uncovered more than 86,000 hidden earthquakes beneath its surface—ten times more than previously recorded. These were not random tremors but chaotic swarms, moving along rough, young fault lines.

The official line from the U.S. Geological Survey remains calm: “background levels,” “no imminent eruption”. But the data tell a different story. Hydrothermal eruptions, swarms of quakes, and subtle ground deformation suggest a system alive with tension.

Yellowstone is not alone. From Iceland’s volcanic swarms to Italy’s restless Campi Flegrei, the Earth’s crust is humming with energy. The magma is moving. The boiler is heating.

---

## Part IV: A World Under Stress

In June 2025, researchers updated the World Stress Map, a global chart of tectonic strain. The picture was sobering: vast regions of the crust are under abnormal stress, shifting between strike-slip, thrust, and normal faulting regimes.

The British Geological Survey warned of rising global geological risk, from landslides to megaquakes. Subsidence surges in the UK, anomalous tremors in South America, and volcanic unrest in Asia all point to a planet under pressure.

The Earth’s crust is not a stable shell. It is a boiler plate, flexing and groaning under forces we barely comprehend.

---

## Part V: Non-Linearity and Hubris

The greatest danger is not the data itself but our refusal to read it correctly. We assume linearity: seas rise predictably, quakes occur sporadically, economies grow steadily. But the Earth is not linear.

- **Climate:** Arctic ice loss accelerates warming, which accelerates ice loss.
- **Geology:** Stress builds invisibly until a fault ruptures catastrophically.
- **Economics:** Markets climb for years, then collapse in a day.

The superquake hypothesis is not a fantasy. It is a reminder that the Earth does not negotiate. It waits, then it strikes.

---

## Part VI: The Reckoning

If the oceans surge outward in a single planetary wave, the consequences will be beyond imagination.

- **Farmlands:** The Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi deltas—breadbaskets of humanity—will vanish.
- **Cities:** New York, London, Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos—all drowned.
- **People:** Hundreds of millions displaced in days, not decades.

And yet, in the blackest irony, the stock markets may outlive the people. Servers in upland data centers will continue to hum, algorithms will continue to trade, and indices may even rally on “reconstruction optimism.” The Dow Jones could hit record highs while its traders gasp for air.

Liquidity, indeed.

---

## Part VII: The Angry God

Strip away the models, the politics, the markets, and what remains is this: a planet tired of being ruled.

The Earth has tolerated our dams, our drills, our pipelines, our endless hunger to dominate. But if the superquake comes, it will not be a natural disaster. It will be a verdict.

> *“You sought to master the seas, and so the seas shall master you. You sought to rule the Earth, and so the Earth shall rise against you.”*

This is not prophecy. It is geology with teeth. The oceans are patient, but patience is not infinite. The boiler is heating. The geyser is readying. The crust is groaning.

And when the Earth decides enough is enough, it will not whisper. It will roar.

---

### References
- Weather.com, *Pacific Blob Is Significant, Here’s Why* (2025)
- Climate Cosmos, *Experts Warn a Forgotten Climate Pattern Might Return in 2025* (2025)
- Accuweather, *The Blob Is Back Across the Entire North Pacific* (2025)
- Eawaz, *Pacific Ocean Mystery Heatwave Warms 2025* (2025)
- Muser Press, *Unusual Ocean Heat Zones Emerge* (2025)
- GFZ Helmholtz Centre, *World Stress Map 2025* (2025)
- British Geological Survey, *Global Geological Risk* (2025)
- USGS, *Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Monthly Update* (2025)
- University of Utah, *Earthquake Activity in the Yellowstone Region* (2025)
- ScienceDaily, *AI Uncovers 86,000 Hidden Earthquakes Beneath Yellowstone* (2025)
- Smithsonian/USGS, *Yellowstone Weekly Volcanic Activity Report* (2025)
- Yahoo News, *Yellowstone Hiding More Than 80,000 Earthquakes* (2025)

---

Game Over

[JimC]

Crumple at his finest!

[pErvinalia]

tl;dr

[Brian Peacock]

It was something about a Clam that wasn't a Clam.